Negishi's column: What did COP14 achieve and what will drive 2009's climate change debate?

 

By Hirotaka Negishi

COP/MOP14 closed on the 12^th of December in Poznan, Poland. Annual COP meetings' significance and momentum tarnish year by year. This appears to be particularly true this year because of two reasons. First, the global financial crisis, which requires urgent political measures to limit as much as possible the duration and the sharpness of the economic downturn, currently monopolizes the attention of policy makers worldwide to the detriment of longer-term issues such as global warming. Second, as the deadline for parties' agreement over the post-2012 period was set on December 2009 (i.e. COP15 in Denmark) rather than on December 2008 (COP14), there was no real incentive for participants to discuss seriously about the reduction targets applicable after 2012. As a result, the agreement presented in the final decision papers appears as a bare minimum.

While it is hard to disagree on the proposal of an "Adaptation Fund", its application may be problematic, especially with regard to both the fund dispersal and the number of potential recipients. It is worth noting that the UNFCCC presented the ministerial round table as a "key-event" and stated that the outcome "gave a resounding commitment". Hence, even if indirectly, the UNFCCC recognized officially the lack of progress in the post-2012 discussions.

 

Having noted these cool-down interests on global warming issues as well as the lack of significant progression in the scope of COP/MOP discussions, we have to pay attention to a significant event, which occurred outside the conference table: the new US presidency. Throughout the election race, both candidates showed a serious interest for environmental issues and particularly climate change. Obama's policy paper[1] spends pages over energy and climate change issues. Nonetheless, while he is addressing these issues from a job creation perspective, Obama fails to address these issues from a pure environmental perspective. To tell things differently, Obama is focused on environmental issues simply because he believes that such a policy may help create jobs and exports by empowering the development of US domestic technologies. Besides, the newly elected US president claims that alternative power sources based on renewable energies will progressively replace fossil fuel energies. Targets have already been set up: by 2012, 10 % of the electricity is expected to be provided by these alternative sources while this percentage is expected to reach 25 % by 2025. With reference to the current proportion of renewable energy, these targets look realistic. Conversely, proposing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80 % by 2050 is harder to sell, as this cut involves not only the USA but also a large number of developed and developing countries. As a collective effort is required, setting up the target collectively appears as a necessary first step. Statistics[2] show that currently, the USA rag behind the Kyoto Protocol nations in reducing greenhouse gases. However, if the US economy slows down and accelerates its conversion to natural gas, Europe, Japan and other major emitters may be under pressure to adopt tougher targets. In such a case, a "number race" may take place. This represents a significant danger, as number races are generally disconnected from realities such that targets cannot be realistically achieved.

 

A team of scientists from Harvard University published an analysis[3] about the relationship between US trade-policy and global warming's responsibility. This study suggests that American trade policy should be count the trade partner's environmental policy because it could be related to America's own efforts to contributing global warming mitigation. The idea seems absurd but it remains difficult to measure the influence of such a report on the US administration, especially on the Obama Transition Team.

 

The mid-term event for preparing COP15, so-called COP14.5, will be held in late march in Bonn. We need to pay attention on how the "new" America will sell its ideas to the other parties and how it will be welcomed.